Zing.
Sorry for that one, it was low, I know. Point being, you already ‘know’ Warhammer Online has been cancelled. I know this because if you read this site from time to time, there’s no question in my mind that you read a dozen other sites that are more regularly updated, and actually make an attempt to be ‘news’ like and keep on top of this stuff.
Good for them.
No, what I’m here to do is give a small recap about the industry, as I’ve done multiple times. I mean, in the last eight months we’ve seen how many games canned, or in dire straits? Is anybody noticing a trend?
Uru Live. Mythica. True Fantasy Live Online. Earth & Beyond. Funding pulled from The Matrix Online. Origin Studios closing down, and most of the team for UXO leaving the project. It’s just been one thing after another hasn’t it?
But, then, if you’ve been reading this site at all for the past few months, you’d have seen me talk about this and predict it on numerous occasions. I’ve said forever that this was going to happen. The big boys are going to be the ones competing against each other for the 200k+ sub mark, the little guys, unless they shoot for a realistic number, simply won’t be able to keep up.
Warhammer Online isn’t going to be the end of this trend by any means. It’s just going to fade away into nothing more than another name on what is going to be a very long list over the next year, year and a half.
The reality is, what was once the hottest thing (MMOGs), is now becoming cold. It’s no longer secure, it’s no longer safe, and those are all reasons for investors to get the hell out of Dodge. This saddens me greatly. I truly believe if an MMOG is planned appropriately, there’s no reason it can’t be very successful.
And I’m not talking mechanically planned (though yes, knowing how to make it fun and good is important). I’m talking financially. As in, when the game idea is being sold to those putting up money for it, you are realistic enough to shoot for numbers you can actually hope to attain. What level of subscribers do you need to be successful? Can you make a game to get those subscribers with the budget allotted to you?
I believe this is why Warhammer Online is being cancelled. When the idea was conceptualized, it was probably conceptualized as a 500,000 subscriber game. Well, the reality is, Warhammer Online could’ve been assured, in my opinion, of getting 50,000 subs. It had the right niche to get that many subs, and in my opinion that would’ve been moderately successful. I even predicted this sort of success for it after seeing it at E3.
Of course, how do you think a publisher is going to feel if, upon looking at a product and the budget, they realize the revenue it would most likely generate would be ten times less than what they had anticipated? Probably not very happy huh?
This is a problem that in my opinion is occurring widely right now, and it’s sad because obviously, it didn’t need to happen. If these games, in concept, were being targeted towards realistic numbers, one would find that they can be financial successes anywhere from 2,000 subscribers, to 400,000.
Unfortunately, in concept, Warhammer Online didn’t say: “we’ll be competing against World of Warcraft and Vanguard. How will what we plan do against those products? Probably not that great unless we can afford another twenty million dollars. So let’s work on and emphasize our strong points, make a kick ass game on a realistic budget for 75,000 subscribers.” If they had, I suspect it wouldn’t have been cancelled.
Thing that bothers me, it’s not that hard to predict how these games will fare, at least in the North American market. Do I even need to point out that Dragon Empires will not be competing against any of the big boys? Does that really need to be said by me? It’s obvious. They missed their window of opportunity, which was getting an MMOG out the door last year sometime around SWG, and now they have a game that won’t garner any sort of competitive sub base considering the competition.
Of course, if they only needed 30,000 subs to be a success, well that’s still doable. Simplify your goals, work on your strong points, market to your audience, you’ll hit 30k subs no problem. Not exactly taking a mensa genius here to understand this stuff.
But I know, whoever is putting up money for Dragon Empires incorrectly believes that it’s going to be a major player. How will they feel when the cold certainty sinks in that it won’t? Will it be cancelled despite being even in beta? Who knows, I would recommend against it just because box sales could at least make up for ‘some’ investment capital, but understandably, for games that are earlier in development, now is the time for them to realistically look at their project and wonder whether they should pull the plug.
That’s just one game. What about Dark and Light? What about Saga of Ryzom? What about Face of Mankind? Yeah, you get the point.
And that’s how the industry stands.
Games that could’ve been successful being cancelled because of a poor overall understanding of the industry when they were pitched. Now those misconceptions are coming back to bite them in the ass as those in charge are shaking their head and saying they want out.
Never should’ve happened is all I can say, I wish somebody had asked me about any one of these projects years ago, because I could’ve pointed out this obvious fact to them way back then. I’m sounding like a broken record, but I can’t say it enough, the key to the future of this industry is people being brutally realistic. Set a bar for success you can actually meet, then treat everything above that as a kick ass bonus.
I’m sorry Warhammer Online was cancelled. Sorry, but not surprised, and because of that I can only say good riddance. This industry needs to be reshaped, and like it or not, it’s going to be reshaped from the top by the big players (SOE/Microsoft/Blizzard and anybody who can compete with them). This doesn’t mean there won’t be room for the smaller players, it just means that when they conceptualize an idea, they’ll be forced to do it at a level they can actually attain success at. Once in awhile one of those small players may stumble across genius and make dump truck loads of cash, but those scenarios will be special cases, not something that large quantities of money is being poured into supporting.